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Comments by YACCS
Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election update

I'm sititng here in the Exit Cafe, filing, because they have wifi and booze and the tension at home would have been crazy. The waiting, as Tom Petty said, is the hardest part.

Jen, in a fit of madness, bet me that Bush would win. Maybe it was the sake, maybe nerves, but I'm making plans on spending that $50 at Amazon soon.

Why? Fox looks like Paris, 1940, they're droning on, but with Florida's big counties not in, counties which if they had been fully counted in 2000, would have sent Bush packing, it cannot look good for him. Wonkette posted some anon email she got saying Karl Rove thought they had a 30 percent chance. They don't send Delta Force out without a 50 percent chance.

We'll go over he numbers and my "methodology" tomorrow, but suffice it to say, if Chris Bowers of My DD prediction of 121m voters is even close to true, Kerry has won and won decisively. Why? There were 106m voters in the last election.. Rove thought he could bump that to 110m, maybe 112 and be safe. The Dems knew they had a lock when they reached 115m. Bowers prediction of 121m could be on the low side, we could eaqsily reach 123-125m voters when everything is counted.

So far, the turnout has been higher than at any time since 1960, and high turnout means more dems than GOP.

Here's some advice: get a drink, relax, calm down. Because we won't know for another hour or so how Ohio will shake out.

According to a post on Daily Kos, and it's only a post, exit polling shows Kerry winning the big three states, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Barring an upset, I think it's clear that Penn is going blue. Ohio still has people in lines to vote.

The problem for the GOP is the massive, no record setting, minority turn out.

I can safely say that the biggest fucking mistake was to try to suppress the vote. Black voters have been extremely angry about Florida, 2000, well since Florida 2000. Duval County especially has been a hotbed of voter rights activity, so has South Florida. So far, there have been no surprises for either Bush or Kerry. Unless there IS one, Bush is a one term President. He cannot remain pat with his 2000 states and Florida, because unless there was a tidal wave of evangelical support, he stands to lose Florida. And if he can't pick up Ohio, it's all over but the gnashing of teeth. Bush MUST win Ohio to win. He held on in 2000 because he had Ohio, mainly because Gore pulled out.

Now, the demographics have changed and Bush needed to gain voters in swing states and that, currently, isn't looking good.

Ancedotal evidence has the Bush campaign down, because without a gain in either Ohio or Paennsylvania, he's not going to win.

Without Bush picking up a surprise, you can go to bed with John Kerry the next president of the United States.

posted by Steve @ 9:52:00 PM

9:52:00 PM

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