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Comments Credits
Comments by YACCS
Sunday, October 31, 2004

Don't just worry, fight

Running hard

Someone posted this and I wanted to reply in full

I have grave -- very grave -- doubts that Kerry is going to pull this off. This is my thought: Kerry's victory is already leaning on GOTV success and wooing a very small percentage of undecideds. Combine MASSIVE, coordinated, and ruthless voter fraud with the simple idea that only a FEW undecideds need to be swayed (not all of them) to throw this to Bush, and it really doesn't look good for the Senator at all. When the race is as close as the polls suggest, anything can tip it. There is strong evidence that terror threats cause Bush's approval rating to jump significantly. All the nuanced logical interpretation means squat, because it's emotion in play here. Specifically, emotional effect on the uninformed and the ignorant (forget that stupid euphimism "undecided" .. these people are just dumb, okay?)

At this point, I think the only real hope there is left is this: The polls are ALL WRONG (even Zogby), and Kerry is way ahead. The most likely scenario for everyone being wrong is that the GOTV effort is massively succesful, and not surpressed by fascist thuggery. I feel this is a slim hope, but I am stiill counting on it.

Excuse me while I drink myself into a stupor and curl up in a ball and twitch until Wednesday.

Everythying you said is wrong.

Remember, Gore won without the GOTV of today or persuading undecideds. Bush has not managed to get large numbers of Gore voters. Kerry has managed to get a significant number of former Bush supporters. Bush lost editorial endorsements since 2000, something like 35. And in traditionally Republican papers.

Bush bet his entire campaign on getting 4m evangelical voters to the polls for him, thinking that would swamp the 537,000 votes he lost by in 2000. Only problem was that evangelicals split with only a seven point difference, Appealing to them alone is not enough to win. Why? Bush tossed away the million gay votes he got in 2000. Worse, his sponsorship of the homophobic amendment is sure to drive up both gay voting and gay registration. So Bush could have easily turned anywhere from 1.5 to 2 m gay voters against him.

Kerry has done more than get undecideds, but the majority of independent voters, and increased turnout. And not by small numbers. We're talking hundreds of thousands of new registered voters in Democratic leaning districts. Since voting has already taken place in some states, we are seeing a major increase in turnout from 2000.

Voter fraud can work on a limited basis in a few areas, if people aren't expecting it. The DNC and Kerry campaign have lawyers waiting by private jets to challenge fraud on election day. Thousands of laywers are working on voter protection with various groups. Hundreds of thousands of volunteers are working as poll watchers. In this environment, and NBC has already recieved 50,000 calls to their voter hotline 1 866-MY-VOTE-1, and it's still early voting. While there may be issues on election day, the idea that Bush can create wholesale voter fraud is not likely. This isn't 2000, people are not sitting on their hands. You can only disenfranchise a few thousand people at best. When no one is looking. And there are tech people watching Diebold as well.

Look, I wrote months ago that all the handwringing about Diebold was distracting people from the real issue: old fashioned voter suppression. So what have we seen? Old fashioned voter suppression.

The problem with scary Osama is that he's still alive. It is unlikely to move many voters, and remember, there may be more early voting now than in any time in recent history. A third of voters have already cast their votes in Florida. Osama laughing at Bush reminds them of one thing, not Bush the protector, but the fact that he's not dead and that bothers a lot more people than will scare them into the arms of Bush.

The polling has looked bad for Bush for months.

See, most people outside politics see Bush 49-Kerry 44 and say "shit, he's losing".

But people inside politics see something very different: Bush is down, has been down and is likely to lose.


Because he's not above 50 percent.

In a truly close race, Bush would be about 51-52 percent. Hell, he had a 13 point lead on Gore going into election day and lost. Now, he is tied with Kerry.

Also, remember the polls all have flaws, in that they are weighted to different variables. Gallup leans hard GOP. Zogby, who was the only one who called a close race in 2000, has called it for Kerry.

It's not over, so curling up into a ball is silly. You can still do something to prevent what you fear. Volunteer for ACT or Kerry or the DNC. Do something besides worry and you'll at least know you did your part to prevent Bush from winning. Just printing up and handing our Move On Voter Protection Cards on your own may help people. Take $10, go to Staples, and run some off. Then just hand them out near a couple of polling places. You are not powerless and this is NOT over.

If you do nothing, you help Bush win. And your fears may well come true. But if you act, what you want may well happen.

posted by Steve @ 1:40:00 AM

1:40:00 AM

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