Before you panic, think: where are Bush's new voters
The engine of George Bush's defeat
You tour the blogs and you see such fucking silly handwringing. Kerry's not doing this, he's not doing that, he needs to hit back harder.
Just fucking stop.
It will take a miracle for Bush to win, and he has been short of them lately.
Personally, I think Rove and his team are desperate to find anything to get Kerry on, and they aren't finding it. Their internals are nightmarish, which is why Bush's strategy has been to play up the war. But the Rove team has so lost their touch, they vetted, then humiliated Zell Miller within the span of 24 hours. Nothing has moved the numbers. Nothing. Not the Swift Boat lies, not Bush's trial balloons, nothing. The current post convention bounce is probably illusory and Rove knows it.
Remember, Bush has to GAIN voters. He has to gain at least a half million new votes. Rove thinks that they will come from evangelicals, but according to the story below, that isn't going to be enough. He cannot tie his 2000 performance, he must do better, and he comes under some serious disavantages:
*A unified Democratic party
*Near-equal funding between the parties
*Independent actors working against Bush
*A sharp decline in Nader voters
*Losing support among independents, military families and undecideds
*A losing war in Iraq.
*Losing one million gay voters who went for Bush in 2000
*Numerous potential scandals
*An energized media working against Bush. Between F 9/11 and the new Kitty Kelley book, it's not looking good.
Kelley is the supreme Hollywood gossip biographer. She's the one who said Nancy Reagan was the blow job queen of Hollywood and that Frank Sinatra's mother was an abortionist. Her books have a way of lingering in the memory and defining people. While there is a steamy rumor that she lists Bush's bisexual encounters, the real damage she could do is to strip away the veneer of "nice guy" Bush cloaks himself in. The salacious details could derail Bush's evangelical strategy.
While some people doubt this, let me explain. You probably think J. Edgar Hoover is a transvestite. Well, that comes from one, just one, book by Anthony Sampson. While people gloss over the fact that OSS agents tracked down Hoover and photographed him having homosexual sex, and those photos were dropped into a vault at the CIA, where they remain to this day, they glommed on to Hoover as drag queen. The fact that the CIA blackmailed the FBI is a footnote of history. While Hoover's kinks get first billing.
The voting pool has changed. There are fewer people willing to pull the lever for Bush than there was in 2000. Bush would have to gain millions of new voters, and there is no evidence that he is.
So, before you get nervous, and this is like the kind of nerves people have before losing their virginity and they beat themselves up as a loser, think it through. Where are Bush's new voters coming from?
He's losing gays, hispanics are moving towards Kerry, Nader voters are going for Kerry in large numbers and he's on very few ballots. So before you panic, ask yourself, where are Bush's new voters coming from?
All Kerry had to do is keep the Gore voters. That's it. And he's doing more than that.
Bush needs new voters. Do you think that convention got him moderates and undecideds?
Bush could win, which means if you can, you have to work for his defeat and the defeat of his allies in Congress. But, before you spaz out in print, look at the GOP, look at how their convention went and think: where are the new Bush voters?
posted by Steve @ 1:08:00 AM