Send the pigs back to the pig farm
I don't trust the polling, so I won't make any predictions.
Why don't I trust the polling?
Because this election crossed a line at the end of the summer. It stopped being about policy and started being about people. The issues which dogged the GOP are not from the usual catalog of national security and economics, but personal issues like child molestation and spousal abuse, as well as a growing revulsion towards Bush and his managers.
It's like being run by the Enron team, but with less smarts.
I have no idea how many secrets are going to drive the people to the polls today. No clue. But if you see a lot of young women voting, a lot of young people period, it's going to be as bad a day as possible for the GOP.
If people had been voting their fears in the past, now they can vote their nightmares. It isn't some strange man, but Uncle Jimmy's wandering hands and their cousin in Iraq. So when you've been trained to vote on fear, when your personal fear is tossed in your face, why not vote it.
There are a pair of commercials running in New York for NJ-5. Linda Stender says her opponent Mike Ferguson opposes abortion, and uses young women to make the point. Mike Ferguson claims she gets two pensions. So do a lot of people. Is this a reason to vote someone into office? I don't think hard about which one is going to drive people to vote.
But the GOP's whole campaign has been tone deaf like this. Finish the job in Iraq, they will raise your taxes. People are on a whole different level this cycle. They're hearing about violent abusers and sex predators.
Someone in an earlier thread said, "Jim Davis has never been that close to Charlie Crist". Well, most people are not going to say this for attribution, but if the choice is faggot vs not-faggot, well guess who wins? I mean, most people, even Republicans, won't say that for attribution, not even in front of their family, but when they think that he looks really put together and doesn't even have a girlfriend for appearances, they will vote, and if exit polled, may even lie about it.
Why? Because people lie. No one wants to be seen as a bigot, or in Harold Ford's case, not sticking by the expectations of their neighbors. But people are lying about who they will vote for.
I have never seen an issue when people have more reason to vote against the ruling party, and less reason to discuss it.
The Republicans are pulling out every dirty trick in the book, every one they can dig up, from mass robocalls to lying to voters. But I think the robocalls may backfire as news of them spread and the blame is placed on the GOP.
They did this in 2004 and they won by 113,000 votes, barely. And that was before the GOP and Iraq collapsed before our eyes.
Their backs are to the wall and they know they are going to lose. They just don't know by how much. They certainly are acting like it.
All that's left is voting, and making sure the people you know are voting as well.
posted by Steve @ 12:46:00 AM