Poll parsing

It's funny, people are looking at national polling data or even local polls and saying "it's tightening up".

Well, if you need things to worry about, you can worry about that.

But I think there's one poll they haven't conducted, the angry voter poll. The angry voters made 2004 closer than people thought it would be. Now, the GOP is hoping that their targeted appeals with robocall suppression will save some seats and prevent a massacre tomorrow.

But I like to think that there's a voter polling is just missing. They don't answer the calls, because they don't have the time, they use cellphones exclusively, they work off hours, whatever. But every time they see Bush talk about Iraq or Pete King's smug face, they have decided they have to vote and the GOP has to go.

People are predicting a low turnout election. My feeling, is if the weather is good across the country, as it is today, turnout won't be that low. And if a bunch of voters who usually come out only in presidential years show up, it won't be to vote for Bush.

The reason I won't predict numbers is because I don't see the pool of angry voters being explored in a serious way. What pollsters don't tell you is that while their samples are representative, they're all biased. They can detect trends, but they can't predict votes. No one would have seen that 17 percent of Ohio black voters would have voted for Bush on gay marriage.

So, they are aren't going to see the people who are going to vote angry tomorrow. The problem with the base voter strategy is that if the moderates jump ship, all you have is the base and you can't win with the base.

Another reason I think this may be a factor is the personal nature of the GOP corruption. The Foley story touches people where they live. So they may answer the GOP calls, they may express a preference for Republicans, but in their hearts, they are still so angry about their own trauma, that when they get in the booth, they won't be voting GOP.

Now, if it was just Iraq, I doubt that would be in play, but sexual abuse is often a hidden secret, even between married couples. I think when Mark Foley was discovered, a lot of a Republican-leaning women decided it was time for a change. Men made the same leap when Bush kept defending his failed war.

I think people have stopped listening to the GOP, because for the most part, their pitches are tonedeaf. Finish the job in Iraq, they''ll raise your taxes? Huh? The fact is that getting out of Iraq is the issue, period.

Now, people may stay home, they may stick with the GOP, but the Republicans are desperate, with their robocalls and all.

posted by Steve @ 10:04:00 AM