The coming storm
Charlie Cook: Category 5 Storm Headed for House GOP
Fri Oct 13, 2006 at 08:27:11 PM PDT
Over at the Cook Political Report, Charlie Cook had one of his oh-so rare National Overviews (this was the first since May 6). In it, he said what most people already know -- the GOP is on the ropes.
Hat tip to fellow NM blogger New Mexico Matters for the catch. Crossposted at FBIHOP.
More on the dark side of the moon.
[T]his is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like. Yes, he says that it is more likely that Democrats will get 30 seats than 15. According to Cook, it isn't just likely that Democrats will be in power in the House after these elections, but that they will have a sizable lead.
Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.
Then he gets into the money stuff.
On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts. For every seat the Democrats put money into, the GOP will have to put even more money into -- because of "the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974."
For Republicans, it is a time to defend every seat, no matter how secure those seats appear. If things don't change, GOP incumbents, who never even contemplated having a difficult race, may well lose this year. And if I were a Republican, I'd start praying that something happens to take the spotlight away from Iraq and scandals, because this current issue mix is lethal.
People will need a compelling reason to vote for the GOP this year -- only those who are most unquestioning of the GOP policies are sure votes. Those with any doubts about Republicans will be very unwilling to vote Republican -- not necessarily vote Democratic, but maybe sit this election out.
But remember, we have a long way to go. While money donated back in July is more useful than money donated now, if you donate today, it won't go to waste (I say donate to Patricia Madrid here in New Mexico, but that's just me). Even better, go to your local Dem's website and see what you can do to volunteer.
A storm may be headed for the House GOP, but we can't let this storm sputter out before November. P.S. Thanks to everyone who recommended my diary and put my on the Recommend List for the first time.
posted by Steve @ 1:47:00 AM