A Dem Win in 2006 Leads to Rudy in 2008
Posted Oct 25th 2006 12:38PM by NixGuy
Filed under: President 2008
Why? Because if the Democrats win the house this year, and if they even come dangerously close in the Senate, lots of folks in the GOP are going to start making big calculations.
And what they're going to decide is that the GOP must win the presidency in 2008. Having lost control of the House and possibly the Senate, it would be unthinkable to lose all three branches of government. Conservatives would like to vote their values, but what they need to do is win.
Who is the guy who can easily win it for the GOP? Rudy Giuliani. Rudy can flip two states, New York and New Jersey and potentially Connecticut. With those states plus the GOP usuals, that's a very easy 2008 November victory.
The question is whether a pro-choice, anti-gun Rudy can win the GOP primary in such places as South Carolina. I think he can. And if the GOP is down to only one branch of government, it's going to make it even easier for the conservatives to get along with Rudy for the sake of winning.
McCain is in the mix of course, but McCain doesn't flip N.Y. to the GOP.
Rudy can make it real easy on the conservatives. He can promise to be neutral on social issues, and nominate law and order judges who are strict constructionists like Scalia, Alito, and Roberts. This does not violate Rudy's view on things and will make the conservatives very happy.
All this is not to say that the Democrats should throw the election in 2006 in order to forestall a Rudy candidacy, not at all. One problem at a time. But it's something to think about.
Giuliani was the mayor of New York, not the king of New York. His time in New York was marked by sharp racial conflict and the ugly end of his marriage by adultery. He can no more win New York than conjure gold from metal.
Why? Because New York is about to go from royal blue to prussian blue. Every office in the state may be held by a Democratic, leaving Mike Bloomberg the highest ranking Republican, and with a very hands on Spitzer government to deal with.
Giuliani isn't that popular here any more. People forget that.
posted by Steve @ 10:56:00 AM