Forget the polls
Look, Cook and Rothenberg can predict a tidalwave all they want. It's what they do, but the polling doesn't mean shit. It just doesn't.
Because the GOP is collapsing before our eyes while Dems are just getting motivated. Now one of our loyal readers was pissed that I compared one report to the destruction of Army Group Centre. Now, that's NOT my opinion, but the opinion of the writer. The comparison is mine, but the claim wasn't.
Now, I know people get pissed when I predict things, not that I care. It's an old journalism trick and it serves me well, even if people would go nuts.
But with this election, I was asked today how many seats the Dems would take, and my reply was "I don't know numbers, it's all turnout".
And it is. If Republicans stay home or vote Dem, Bush will face a resolutely hostile Congress. If things get tight, the Dems may have less of a majority. Will the GOP keep the House? Unlikely, because they're already down five seats they aren't going to win and everyone knows it.
But the fact is that most of these races will need people and money until election day. There is no sitting back, and while I think the GOP is on the verge of a historic fracture, one I've seen coming for years, it can't happen if we sit back and do nothing. This isn't 2004, the same "let's target a few races" crew aren't around any more. We're playing to run the table, and get as many seats as we can. I don't know how many that is. It could be 16 or 60, there's a week to go.
Polls don't elect people. We elect people.
You think this is just bullshit? Read Matt Taibbi's piece in Rolling Stone
But the 109th Congress is no mild departure from the norm, no slight deviation in an already-underwhelming history. No, this is nothing less than a historic shift in how our democracy is run. The Republicans who control this Congress are revolutionaries, and they have brought their revolutionary vision for the House and Senate quite unpleasantly to fruition. In the past six years they have castrated the political minority, abdicated their oversight responsibilities mandated by the Constitution, enacted a conscious policy of massive borrowing and unrestrained spending, and installed a host of semipermanent mechanisms for transferring legislative power to commercial interests. They aimed far lower than any other Congress has ever aimed, and they nailed their target.Congress isn't just broken, it is morally adrift. It needs a replacement.
And only people, not polls, can do that.
We can survive two more years of Bush, but why should we. We need a Congress which does it's job, nothing more or less.
But, don't be fooled. This is the first step, just the first. A friendly Congress is only the beginning. Bush is stubborn and thinks you're stupid, so that means a fight, a hard fight. So if you think sending Angie Paccione or Dave Meijas to the House solves your problems, you are very much mistaken.
Do more than vote
posted by Steve @ 12:24:00 AM