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Comments by YACCS
Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Not so fast ,Joerus


Follow me?

This is from a press release from American Research Group. Rassmussen has the race at 45-43. Either way, this is all within in the MOE and serious trouble for Lieberman

Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont are in a statistical tie in the race for United States Senate in Connecticut according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among likely voters in November, 44% say they would vote for Lieberman, 42% say they would vote for Lamont, 3% say they would vote for Alan Schlesinger, and 11% are undecided.

Lieberman leads Lamont 57% to 18% among enrolled Republicans and 48% to 38% among unaffiliated (independent) voters. Lamont leads Lieberman 65% to 30% among enrolled Democrats.

A total of 56% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman. A total of 47% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 34% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont.

Overall, 9% of likely voters have favorable opinions of both Lieberman and Lamont. Of this group, Lieberman leads Lamont 68% to 32%. Of the remaining 91% of likely voters, Lieberman and Lamont are tied at 44% each. Also of the remaining 91% of likely voters, 46% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 42% have a favorable opinion of Lamont and 40% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont.

Of the 11% of likely voters undecided in the US Senate ballot, 57% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman and 43% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, and 4% have a favorable opinion of Lamont, 41% have an unfavorable opinion of Lamont, and 55% are aware of Lamont but do not know enough about him to have an opinion.

The following results are based on 790 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Connecticut. A total of 188 enrolled Republicans, 261 enrolled Democrats, and 341 unaffiliated voters were interviewed. Of the 790 likely voters, 600 say they always vote. The interviews were conducted August 17-21, 2006.

The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 790 likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split. The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters saying they always vote is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording and responses:

If the general election for US Senate were being held today between Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Joe Lieberman, the independent, and Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, for whom would you vote? (names rotated)

CT US Senate

Lamont

Lieberman

Schlesinger

Undecided


Likely voters

42%

44%

3%

11%


Always vote 43% 47% 2% 8%

Republicans (24%)

18%

57%

11%

14%

Democrats (33%)

65%

30%

0%

5%

Unaffiliated (43%)

38%

48%

1%

13%

Which of the following names have you heard of in connection with running for US Senate in Connecticut? (names rotated)

Ned Lamont.

If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Ned Lamont, an unfavorable opinion of Ned Lamont, or that you are aware of Ned Lamont but have no opinion of him?

Ned Lamont

Favorable

Unfavorable

Undecided

Unaware


Likely voters

47%

34%

19%

-


Republicans (24%)

25%

57%

18%

-

Democrats (33%)

68%

24%

8%

-

Unaffiliated (43%)

43%

29%

28%

-

Joe Lieberman.

If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Joe Lieberman, an unfavorable opinion of Joe Lieberman, or that you are aware of Joe Lieberman but have no opinion of him?

Joe Lieberman

Favorable

Unfavorable

Undecided

Unaware


Likely voters

56%

41%

3%

-


Republicans (24%)

64%

36%

-

-

Democrats (33%)

30%

68%

2%

-

Unaffiliated (43%)

71%

24%

5%

-

Alan Schlesinger.

If aware, ask: Would you say that you have a favorable opinion of Alan Schlesinger, an unfavorable opinion of Alan Schlesinger, or that you are aware of Alan Schlesinger but have no opinion of him?

Alan Schlesinger

Favorable

Unfavorable

Undecided

Unaware


Likely voters

5%

45%

36%

14%


Republicans (24%)

18%

54%

25%

4%

Democrats (33%)

3%

49%

35%

14%

Unaffiliated (43%)

0%

38%

4

3%


19%


Lieberman is well known, with near 100 percent name recognition. He's losing Dems, and Lamont is picking up Republicans and independents as well.

If Lieberman continues to lose votes, it is clear that his campaign will be over. The only way that a Lieberman bid remains viable is if he maintains a clear lead over Lamont. People will be unlikely to support a losing bid, and the fact that Lamont has gained so much ground so fast, without ads or street teams means that Lieberman is in serious trouble.

Who's going to volunteer for a losing campaign with a Senator who has already been defeated.

Wait for a day or two and watch the armtwisting begin. Because it's now clear that a Lieberman run will not only lose, but will destroy him. So far, Lamont has made NO mistakes. He even had Sharpton and Jackson campaign for him and it wasn't a successful issue for him. Even Jane Hamsher's running of that illustration had no effect.

The closest thing to a mistake was the first debate, and Lieberman's arrogance undermined him.
But in terms of his stump speeches and comments to the media, Lamont has handled the pressure quite well. Lieberman, well, Vichy Dem is a kind comment. He's acted badly from the start of the summer and hasn't stopped.

The fact is that while the idea of a Lieberman run is appealing to people. But paying for it, walking the streets for it? Not so good. Lieberman dropped 12 points in a week. A week.

At some point this week, Harry Reid needs to pull him in for a talk, like the one they gave Nixon. Because he's gonna lose, he's gonna lose badly and hurt the party in the process. Does he think the numbers will get better? It's one thing to give money to a Lieberman that has a lead, another to one who is losing to the same guy twice.

If this happens in the next week, Lieberman's second campaign will not get off the ground.

Update:

CT-Sen: New Rasmussen Poll Shows Closer Race


I became a subscriber to Rasmussen reports yesterday in order to increase the amount of information I have available to make Senate and Governor forecasts. They may be a Republican firm, but I am already finding the information worth it. Today, I got a sneak peak at a new Connecticut poll (500 LV, 8/21, MoE 4. 8/9 numbers in parenthesis):

Lieberman: 45 (46)
Lamont: 43 (41)
Schlessenger: 6 (6)

Not much movement considering the sampling error, but even that little movement is positive. Some more good news is that when I broke down the partisan crosstabs according to statewide voter registration (PDF--44% Ind / Other, 34% Dem, 22% Rep), Lamont was actually ahead by 1.6%. Throw in what will probably be much higher Democratic turnout than Republican turnout this year, and Lamont may very well be ahead by a couple more points.

The difference between the Q-poll and the Rasmussen poll in Connecticut is found mainly with Independents / Others. While Quinnipiac had Lieberman ahead by 20 among Independents, Rasmussen has a dead heat among Independents. There is no way to know who is more accurate.

posted by Steve @ 10:53:00 AM

10:53:00 AM

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