Steve and Jen bring you this daily review of the news
Premium Advertiser

News Blog Sponsors

News Links

BBC World Service
The Guardian
Washington Post
Iraq Order of Battle
NY Times
LA Times
ABC News

Blogs We Like

Daily Kos
Digby's Blog
Operation Yellow Elephant
Iraq Casualty Count
Media Matters
Talking Points
Defense Tech
Intel Dump
Soldiers for the Truth
Margaret Cho
Juan Cole
Just a Bump in the Beltway
Baghdad Burning
Howard Stern
Michael Moore
James Wolcott
Cooking for Engineers
There is No Crisis
Whiskey Bar
Rude Pundit
Crooks and Liars
Amazin' Avenue
DC Media Girl
The Server Logs

Blogger Credits

Powered by Blogger

Archives by
Publication Date
August 2003
September 2003
October 2003
November 2003
December 2003
January 2004
February 2004
March 2004
April 2004
May 2004
June 2004
July 2004
August 2004
September 2004
October 2004
November 2004
December 2004
January 2005
February 2005
March 2005
April 2005
May 2005
June 2005
July 2005
August 2005
September 2005
October 2005
November 2005
December 2005
January 2006
February 2006
March 2006
April 2006
May 2006
June 2006
July 2006
August 2006
September 2006
October 2006
November 2006
December 2006
January 2007
February 2007
Comments Credits
Comments by YACCS
Tuesday, August 29, 2006

The fall season

Sadly No

MyDD's 2006 House forecast
by kos
Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:46:21 PM PDT

Chris Bowers has put together his House Forecast 2006 (PDF). It's quite the document, with a ton of great information.

it's manna for political junkies.

I currently project Democrats to take 15-25 seats, which would give them a narrow majority of between 218-228 seats. I am a little worried that in the final decisions I was too optimistic by a tier in a few races (FL-16, ID-01, IL-06, NY-24, OH-01, OH-02, PA-07, PA-08, TX-17 and WA-08) and too pessimistic by a tier in others (FL-13, IN-02, NY-20 and WV-01). Overall I think it is a very good forecast even if, perhaps, very slightly too optimistic.

What I am not worried about is competition. The sheer amount of information I offer in this forecast easily surpasses anything publicly available anywhere in the nation. In this forecast, I include the following:

* The top 60 House races in the nation, grouped by competitiveness tier.

* The names of both the Democratic and Republican candidates in all 60 races.

* The relative cash on hand in all 60 races

* The partisan voting index for all 60 districts

* The 2004 margin in all 60 districts

* The latest poll, if any, from all 60 districts

* Notifications as to whether each district is an open seat, held by a freshman, has a repeat challenger, or has been targeted for ad buys by the DCCC

* Mini-commentary on each district

I love blogs.

Update: And for the record, I still don't think we'll win back either chamber. I've seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we'll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.

Yeah, I know such pessimism is tough when the numbers, data, and current events give so much cause for optimism, but I was burned two cycles in a row. I'm not getting my hopes up.

And in any case, I'm fully prepared (and eager, this time) to be completely wrong a third election cycle in a row

I disagree with Kos because the GOP is now facing real fights in places which had been safe, like Missouri and Virgnia.

Also, it was a massive mistake to run three black Republican candidates, two for governor. It will turn out that Blackwell and Swann will be drags on DeWine and Santorum. Republicans are going to stay home in large number and Dems are going to come out to vote.

The war has taken three years to be an issue, but now it is. Lieberman, who has a liberal record belying his big mouth, was run to ground in a primary centering on Iraq.

Complacent and cocky? No. But you get the feeling that something like 1974 is in the air, a major GOP disaster in the making. Bush is way too unpopular and Cheney hated to help their Congressional candidates. You have Chris Shays fumbling to explain his stand on the war, others suing Move On and worrying about Kos's vacation time.

And the best part, Republicans pulling out the stops to save Lincoln Chafee, who is likely to lose anyway.

You never see a disaster building. The GOP didn't see it in 1974, the Dems in 1994. It's the races you aren't watching which suddenly turn your way.

The biggest hint was the lack of Pavlovian fear over the the London bomb plot. Fear has it's limits and all this war talk about Iran didn't help matters

posted by Steve @ 12:04:00 AM

12:04:00 AM

The News Blog home page


Editorial Staff

Add to My AOL

Support The News Blog

Amazon Honor System Click Here to Pay Learn More
News Blog Food Blog
Visit the News Blog Food Blog
The News Blog Shops
Operation Yellow Elephant
Enlist, Young Republicans