The fall season
MyDD's 2006 House forecast
Mon Aug 28, 2006 at 03:46:21 PM PDT
Chris Bowers has put together his House Forecast 2006 (PDF). It's quite the document, with a ton of great information.
it's manna for political junkies.
I currently project Democrats to take 15-25 seats, which would give them a narrow majority of between 218-228 seats. I am a little worried that in the final decisions I was too optimistic by a tier in a few races (FL-16, ID-01, IL-06, NY-24, OH-01, OH-02, PA-07, PA-08, TX-17 and WA-08) and too pessimistic by a tier in others (FL-13, IN-02, NY-20 and WV-01). Overall I think it is a very good forecast even if, perhaps, very slightly too optimistic.
What I am not worried about is competition. The sheer amount of information I offer in this forecast easily surpasses anything publicly available anywhere in the nation. In this forecast, I include the following:
* The top 60 House races in the nation, grouped by competitiveness tier.
* The names of both the Democratic and Republican candidates in all 60 races.
* The relative cash on hand in all 60 races
* The partisan voting index for all 60 districts
* The 2004 margin in all 60 districts
* The latest poll, if any, from all 60 districts
* Notifications as to whether each district is an open seat, held by a freshman, has a repeat challenger, or has been targeted for ad buys by the DCCC
* Mini-commentary on each district
I love blogs.
Update: And for the record, I still don't think we'll win back either chamber. I've seen the GOP close the deal too many times before for me to get complacent and cocky. Nah. I think we'll win 7-14 seats in the House, 3-5 in the Senate.
Yeah, I know such pessimism is tough when the numbers, data, and current events give so much cause for optimism, but I was burned two cycles in a row. I'm not getting my hopes up.
And in any case, I'm fully prepared (and eager, this time) to be completely wrong a third election cycle in a row
I disagree with Kos because the GOP is now facing real fights in places which had been safe, like Missouri and Virgnia.
Also, it was a massive mistake to run three black Republican candidates, two for governor. It will turn out that Blackwell and Swann will be drags on DeWine and Santorum. Republicans are going to stay home in large number and Dems are going to come out to vote.
The war has taken three years to be an issue, but now it is. Lieberman, who has a liberal record belying his big mouth, was run to ground in a primary centering on Iraq.
Complacent and cocky? No. But you get the feeling that something like 1974 is in the air, a major GOP disaster in the making. Bush is way too unpopular and Cheney hated to help their Congressional candidates. You have Chris Shays fumbling to explain his stand on the war, others suing Move On and worrying about Kos's vacation time.
And the best part, Republicans pulling out the stops to save Lincoln Chafee, who is likely to lose anyway.
You never see a disaster building. The GOP didn't see it in 1974, the Dems in 1994. It's the races you aren't watching which suddenly turn your way.
The biggest hint was the lack of Pavlovian fear over the the London bomb plot. Fear has it's limits and all this war talk about Iran didn't help matters
posted by Steve @ 12:04:00 AM