Is Israel going to attack Syria and Iran?
by John in DC - 7/15/2006 10:20:00 AM
Rumors have started.
A few weeks ago, Israeli had its fighters buzz the Syrian presidential palace. That was rather gutsy, and in-your-face. There's speculation in some circles that Israel may bomb Damascus or Tehran in the coming weeks, and I have to say, I'm not sure I'd have a problem with that.
My logic is this. Israel bombing civilians, bad. Israel bombing Lebanon when Hezbollah is the problem, bad (and I have a hard time believing Lebanon has the ability to do jack about Hezbollah). But the real culprits here are not the Lebanese, they're Syria and Iran who have been causing hell in Lebanon for decades.
If Israel has concrete proof that Syria and Iran are directly responsible for supporting Hezbollah and supplying them weapons, etc. (and I'd be surprised if they didn't), then it's difficult to say that Israel can't, or shouldn't, counterstrike against two countries that are attacking Israel via proxies.
Controversial, yes. But while I'm not 100% committed to this strategy, particularly because of the possibilities of any attack on Damascus or Tehran possibly spinning things out of control, it surely makes a lot more sense than the approach we took to dealing with Iraq. Perhaps a shot across the bow, or down their throat, could help "contain" Iran and Syria. It's not clear how letting them get away with murder, quite literally, is helping anything.
What the fuck?
This is one of the most irresponsible things I have ever read. Too many people think the IDF is run with supermen.
Iran has the ability to kill thousands of Americans in Iraq. People say "oh, we'll just use air power". On the Green Zone, with women and children around it, covering the AK carrying men?
Attack Syria, attack Iran, and everything will be fine. So what do you tell the Saudis when they find their oil fields on fire. Or Mubarak when the Muslim Brotherhood call for jihad and war against Israel.
So how many American soldiers are you willing to sacrifice for Israel's impossible quest for eliminating the million strong Hezbollah. Because Americans will die behind this in Iraq.
Will he have a problem with a harrassed US Army trying to escape Iraq, when the government falls and the militias and Army turn on us? How many Iraqis who worked for us will die?
Armaggedon? No, but a major defeat not seen since Korea.
Because Hamas and Hezbollah have changed. Hezbollah is sending longer range missiles into the heart of Israel. What happens if they try to crash the border and take a few thousands casualities to cross into Israel? Or what kind of anti-armor they have waiting for the Israelis?
Americans and Israelis have a great deal of faith in the IDF to deal with Israel's enemies. It seems people have forgotten that the Syrians can set Tal Afar in flames, the Iranians cause an uprising in Basra, and that's just the warmup.
Because we're occupying Iraq and thousands of American can die because of Israel's actions. Trying to bomb Lebanon into submission is insane. It only makes Hezbollah stronger.
I wonder how people will feel then when the bodies of Americans are seen on TV because Israel bombed Damamscus. I know the idiots will want to nuke them all, but the world doesn't work like that.
The US is in a fragile position, and despite all of Israel's bluster, this ends at a conference table. It can't end anywhere else, and certainly not with Hezbollah laying down their arms. Because Israel can't force that with a bombing strike here and there. A reactor? An airport? They can be rebuilt.
But the Israeli tanks which will hit man traps in Southern Lebanon are limited and their crews hard to replace. Hezbollah didn't just spend six years working on missiles alone.
People are confusing two things, Israel's right to exist and Israel's right to dominate the region. Of course, the Israelis have the right to get back their servicemen. But to cause suffering among innocent people? Lebanon didn't attack Israel. Hezbollah did, and there is a difference.
The illusion of technology makes it seem that the IDF can bitchslap their neighbors at will. Well, Hezbollah shows that time doesn't stand stil.
Israeli leaders think this is the early 80's. where they were surrounded by weak states and could impose their will with ease. But it isn't and Iran has the ability to halt oil production in the Gulf as well as make the occupation of Iraq untenable. Hezbollah isn't the PLO, they're willing to die in place.
Americans still have a fantasy that one or two bombing raids can topple an unpopular government, when every bit of evidence is the opposite. Iran can attack the US openly once
Israel bombs them.
posted by Steve @ 3:15:00 AM