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SHIELDS BOMBSHELL: "30 seat loss" says GOP Member Hotlist
by The Crusty Bunker [Subscribe]
Fri May 12, 2006 at 06:45:44 PM PDT

Sweet jumped-up Jeebis in a sidecar--I had to get the transcript just to make sure I heard this right on tonight's PBS Newshour, but I did. Mark Shields, whom I respect and always have for not over-reaching or over-reacting, actually said that a GOP legislator was already anticipating a loss of "30 seats in the House." Read on, MacDuff ...


I'm doing this one quick and dirty and may update it later with sage observations (or maybe not), but I just want to see that the news gets splayed all over the Kommunity ASAP:

MARK SHIELDS: The gloom is there. It's on the Hill. It's wherever two or more Republicans gather in [Bush's] name, I mean, really. I mean, the president's name comes up.

And there was one number -- I was talking to, probably, in my judgment, the most able Republican campaign legislator in the business -- and probably I'm giving away his identity by saying it -- and he said he thought that Republicans would lose right now 30 seats in the House.

What's interesting here is that one of the stories that Newshour featured had some good news for the White House, in that there is actually some positive diplomatic engagement on Darfur--not that most believe it will work. But neither a Darfur breakthrough, nor appointing a batch of conservative judges, nor a drop in gas prices, nor trumped-up spying polls can turn the tide, and here's why:

And the intensity, Ray, is all on the Democratic side. And it's an anti-Bush intensity. There was a question asked: Do you view your vote in the fall as a vote against President George W. Bush or a vote for President George W. Bush? And by a two-to-one margin, it was considered by voters who made that decision a vote against President Bush.

Whoever Shields has for a source, that source knows a lot more than we do (like who's hired a lawyer, who's missing meetings, who's putting a home up for sale, who's drinking earlier in the day, etc.), and I've had a theory all along: No matter how bad we see things are for the GOP in Congress, it can only get worse, worse, worse. I think it is being borne out with every new revelation, now coming at times at a two-a-day pace.

The FBI is having a happy dance searching the number 3 man at the CIA, which means steak dinners and beers all around. Karl Rove probably won't escape next week with his WH job, Michael Hayden is gonna be broasted before Congress next week, and it's only May.

Oh yeah, 29 dead in Iraq this month and Cheney's now dozing off in public.

Worse? We haven't seen worse, yet
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No president has kept his job with ratings under 30 percent. Truman and Nixon left office within a year, and Carter was defeated in a bid for reelection.

Bush has always acted as if he could govern to serve his base, which means he was unconcerned about 50 percent of the country. Without the war, John Kerry would be in the White House. Even with the war, he was barely reelected.

The president has to govern with the consent of the people, not just those who voted for him. He has steadily refused to deal with those who opposed him, except to explain how he was right, regardless of the facts. Bush has tried to bully the rest of us into compliance.

But that can only work when you are successful. When you are failing across the board, refuse to change direction (tax cut, not so bright), and people start going to jail, you're going to lose power.

What the DC Dems don't get is how alienated Americans have become with Bush and the GOP. They are begging for aggressive leadership, and people are still worried about NASCAR dads.

Folks, you need to worry about Walter Reed dads. They want the war to end, they want a resolution to the War on Terror and not the ham handed methods Bush is using. Americans,
for the most part are non-ideological. Most ideology is phrased in social issues, not politics. Bush and The GOP won because they convinced people that they were level headed good managers.

The opposite is true, inept criminals usually don't win the hearts of people. The GOP has mangled every chance, every thing they touched.

Dean is right, the Dems can win on the coasts, but they need the center to govern with the consent of the people.

Bush can only save his presidency by radical changes in direction. Bush is psychologically incapable of both flexibility and mercy. Anyone who thinks Bush is going to pardon people need to talk to Katharine Harris. Despite placing her name and reputation on the line, the Bushes now want her to go away. Who else is going to jump into a losing race, after all, Bush hatred is exploding, and take a bath. Why not repay Harris's loyalty with support?

That is a grim indicator for Rove and Libby.They don't care what you have on them, they're the Bush family. They are not going to be rescued, for if they aren't loyal to Harris, who will they be loyal to?

posted by Steve @ 12:09:00 AM