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Comments by YACCS
Monday, April 10, 2006

Yeah, this will happen


Deadheads were to the Dead what Apple fanatics
are to the Mac

Windows or Mac? Apple Says Both
Published: April 6, 2006
.................................

A number of analysts and software developers said Apple's greatest risk was that by opening its machines to Windows software it might inadvertently chill the enthusiasm of software developers for producing programs to run with the Mac operating system.

The potential downside was far outweighed by the opportunity to expand the number of Macintosh users, Mr. Schiller said, which is a central factor in attracting software developers.

"We thought long and hard about this," he said. "At the end of the day, the most important factor is Mac market share."

Mr. Wolf, the Needham & Company analyst, said that he had done several user surveys since Apple's shift to Intel to measure the potential sales increase from a Windows-compatible Mac, and that user enthusiasm had come back so strong that he had distrusted his results.

He said the biggest and most immediate increase would come in home and education markets in the United States; Apple has 14.8 percent of the elementary and secondary education market, and 5.1 percent of the home market, according to the market research firm IDC.

"It will double Apple's share in these markets," he said.


Here's what I don't get: so what if they buy Macs, does that really do Mac developers any good? Apple fans are dancing in the aisles thinking a whole new bunch of converts are coming their way, and that OSX is going to get this massive boost.

Now, they give Boot Camp away for free, the next generation, Vista is installed side by side.

Why?

Because the users will demand it. The current Apple user base are fanatics and fanatics are useless. It's like the people who used to say writing a Linux driver wasn't that hard.

People think, and I was surprised to see this in so many comments, that in a side by side comparison, that Apple would win.

Here's my question and you're free to kick it around: if you develop software for both Mac and Windows, why should another dime go to developing for OSX?

Apple users can use your Windows-based software and you don't have to worry about your Mac Development team any longer. They can switch or you can fire them. Either way, you're about to save a lot of money.

I know it's a boon to Apple hardware, but my feeling is that, let's call them Consumer Y, will walk into an Apple store, ask if the Mac can run Windows, find that it does, and never boot into OSX. In fact, you'll start to find customers that want OSX off their machines because it takes a lot of space.

Which is heresy to long time Mac heads, but new customers won't care about how virus proof Macs are, or how safari runs, and they won't find out, either.

I will bet within a year, two things will happen:

One, Macs will be pushing 10 percent of marketshare.

Two, MacOSX marketshare will be under 3 percent. That is the number of people who use OSX as their primary OS will drop like a rock. As will the companies doing exclusive MacOSX development.

Anyone want to pick a lucky charity to give money to?

Why? Not because I hate Macs, I own one. But because you never let a fox into a henhouse. Jobs was smart to say he didn't want MacOS to run on Intel chips. When he had no choice, then he agreed, but said he wouldn't make the machines Windows-able. Then the Great Jobs, faced with the power of the hacker, found that they would do it anyway.

Now, Mac users are already saying "there goes Steve again, he knows nothing about Macs".

Which may be true, except that Apple is out of switch tricks. The iMac lost marketshare. Their switch campaign dengerated into a drug joke. The iPod was hacked to use Windows and is now hacked to not use iTunes. Now, they've moved a fox den into the henhouse. They are hoping that once you get a machine into your house and use Windows and OSX, you'll fal in love with OSX and demand more software for it.

And if I lived in the world of the Great Jobs, I would believe this.

But in the world of business, MacOSX just lost a vote of confidence in Cuptertino. How do you go back to your bosses and say "yeah, Apple just made Macs Windows usable, but we should still spend a million to develop for OSX" Apple managers have to pretend it's just a transition-thing, but come on, outside of Avid and Photoshop, what unique qualities does MacOS have for most users.

Apple users like to pretend viruses are crippling PC's every day, but in reality, they come from two sources, Outlook and IE, avoid both, kill popups and use an anti-virus program, that's usually the end of the virus problem.

So now, I'm supposed to believe that the laws of economics no longer apply. People will buy a WinMac and spend more money for Mac software which does the same thing windows software does on the same machine

Money is finite. The money you spend on OSX development cannot be spent anywhere else. If Apple no longer has confidence in their own operating system, why should you?

posted by Steve @ 1:42:00 AM

1:42:00 AM

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