Adam Nagourney says the Dems can't win......again

This is why I don't trust political reporters.


But many Democrats express reservations about both these New Englanders, and that is reflected in the failure of either to draw the institutional party support that typically rallies around a perceived winner. Some Democrats worry that Dr. Dean would prove an easy mark for Mr. Bush, given his liberal views and his lack of any experience in foreign affairs; others warn that Mr. Kerry is an awkward public figure who has run a timorous campaign
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Aides to Dr. Dean's rivals said there was no shortage of issues with which to try to discredit Dr. Dean. They pointed to what they said would be his poor chance of beating Mr. Bush, given his lack of foreign policy experience, stands that could hurt him in Democratic primaries, like his opposition to gun control, and shifts in positions on major issues that his opponents said would undercut his effort to present himself as the straight-talking outsider.

But the unorthodox character of Dr. Dean's candidacy — and the nature of his support from men and women who have been drawn into politics for the first time by his candidacy — has turned Dr. Dean into a difficult target for conventional political attacks.

Aides to his rivals said they had drawn a lesson from Dr. Dean's unsteady appearance on "Meet the Press" in June, which was mocked as near disastrous among party leaders, but now appears to have served to rally his base around him. As a result, Dr. Dean's rivals are all stepping gingerly, waiting for someone else to risk the first shot.

"No one wants to be the person to take on Dean," said Ron Klain, a Democratic consultant who was a senior adviser to Al Gore in 2000.

Dr. Dean's success poses a potentially big problem for Mr. Kerry, and his advisers planned to spend much of the weekend debating how to handle him in the weeks ahead. Many Democrats say it is hard to see how Mr. Kerry could survive losing to Dr. Dean in New Hampshire.

"There's at least a 90 percent likelihood right now that either Dean or Kerry will be the nominee," said Mr. Kerry's campaign manager, Jim Jordan. "And the race is as even as it can be. His advantages are purely stylistic. Kerry's are substantive and experiential."

Yeah and his fundraising just appeared from nowhere.

Look, Nagourney is missing the point because he's being fed shit by four other campaigns.

The issue is not that Dean has vunerabilities, but that Bush is imploding.

He doesn't even address the fact that the insiders are all pissed that Dean doesn't need them to win. He's running a winning campaign, at the moment, because he's not part of the institutional party. People are sick of the say little, no fight back, triangulating Dems. Aaron Magruder made the point this week in Boondocks. Al Sharpton says many of the same anti-Bush things Dean does, but gets no credit for it. Even though he's always warmly received for it. Now, they're ginning up some argument on gun control to use against him, even though that is an ancillary issue for minority voters and turns white males voters off.

The economy is doing nothing, the war is going badly and when people come back from their summer, the news is going to suck. People are going into their third year of either unemployment or underemployment.

CNN ran an especially stupid piece on Wal Mart Democrats vs Starbuck Democrats. I wanted to scream, "you know what they have in common, you patronizing idiot? No fucking jobs." Class matters a lot less now than it did in previous recessions. Because they're shipping all the jobs away. Not just the factory jobs anymore. An Ivy League degree is no more protection than being a certified welder.

The game here is poke the hole in Dean. Every candidate gets it, but unlike Clinton or Carter, Dems are not having it. You go after Dean, as Adam Nagourney will find out, people hammer you. Even if you don't necessarily support him, playing this game with Dean while Bush takes a vacation in August, while Iraq falls apart is silly. President layabout has seen all manner of disaster happen and then done nothing, except raise money and make speeches.

Dean may well stumble, but this is so early in the process, that he has time, room and money to screw up. At the same time, he's denying that to his opponents. There are real questions about Dean's appeal outside the base. He has to make sure he's not just the angry guy, but doctors do that well. Most importantly, he needs to make the issue Bush's policies. If he runs on jobs and the war, the other Dr. Dean can pick the new carpet for the oval office. If it becomes about anything else, he could have real problems.

posted by Steve @ 8:48:00 PM